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    "title": "Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions",
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          "consistent": true,
          "evidence_events": [
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          ],
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          "evidence_reason": "value matched by the legacy rule in events 29",
          "evidence_after_seal": null,
          "evidence_from_unscored_job": false,
          "evidence_scored_execution": null,
          "extraction": "legacy",
          "job_start_event": null,
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          "rederivation_problems": [],
          "method": "Authors model code at commit 2960f286 (2020-05-04), the paper notebook model cell (three change points, abs_sine weekly modulation) with data until 2020-04-21 from the bundled 2020-04-28 JHU snapshot; PyMC3 3.8, init=advi, 2000 draws, 2 chains; posterior median printed by run_dehning.py.",
          "notes": "",
          "code_version": "primary",
          "code_ref": ""
        }
      ],
      "withdrawn_after_seal": false,
      "final": {
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        "consistent": true,
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        "evidence_reason": "value matched by the legacy rule in events 29",
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        "evidence_scored_execution": null,
        "extraction": "legacy",
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        "rederivation_problems": [],
        "method": "Authors model code at commit 2960f286 (2020-05-04), the paper notebook model cell (three change points, abs_sine weekly modulation) with data until 2020-04-21 from the bundled 2020-04-28 JHU snapshot; PyMC3 3.8, init=advi, 2000 draws, 2 chains; posterior median printed by run_dehning.py.",
        "notes": "",
        "code_version": "primary",
        "code_ref": ""
      },
      "earlier_final": null,
      "verdict": "consistent",
      "result_revisions": 0,
      "ratio_to_published": 0.9839130434782608,
      "optional_stopping": false,
      "evidence_problems": [],
      "evidence_ok": true
    }
  ],
  "counts": {
    "claims_scored": 4,
    "consistent": 4,
    "consistent_earlier_code": 0,
    "inconsistent": 0,
    "untested": 0,
    "withdrawn_after_seal": 0,
    "other": {
      "claims": 3,
      "consistent": 3,
      "inconsistent": 0,
      "untested": 0
    }
  },
  "withdrawn": [],
  "protocol": {
    "earlier_code": "allowed",
    "primary_code": "github.com/Priesemann-Group/covid19_inference_forecast (linked in the paper) at the last commit on or before 2020-05-04 (arXiv v3), using its Germany three-change-point model with the data end date pinned to 2020-04-21 and the earliest JHU snapshot available in the repository at that commit, rather than the current, back-revised JHU series",
    "rationale": "The paper results state they use data until April 21. If a claim misses with the paper-date code, earlier commits may be tried as a declared fallback and are reported separately."
  },
  "deviations": [
    {
      "event": 24,
      "description": "Data end pinned to 2020-04-21 and data taken from the repository bundled JHU snapshot (confirmed_global_fallback_2020-04-28.csv) instead of the live JHU download; only the three-change-point model is fitted; pm.sample uses a fixed random_seed.",
      "impact": "minor",
      "reason": "The notebook uses the last date of the live JHU series, which is now March 2023 and back-revised; the paper states data until April 21. The 0-2 change-point models in the notebook loop do not enter the reported lambda values. The seed only makes this run repeatable."
    },
    {
      "event": 39,
      "description": "Python 3.7 with PyMC3 3.8, Theano 1.0.4, numpy 1.18.5, pandas 1.0.5, scipy 1.4.1 and arviz 0.7.0 from conda-forge, CPU only.",
      "impact": "minor",
      "reason": "The repository pins no versions; these are the releases current in May 2020."
    }
  ],
  "notes": [
    {
      "event": 38,
      "text": "The paper itself reports the lambda_3 interval two ways: [0.06, 0.12] in the abstract and [0.06, 0.13] in Fig. 3 and the Results text (p. 7-8). This run gives [0.063, 0.139]. The reproduced intervals and change-point times are also close to Fig. 3 (e.g. t1 5.8 [2.5, 8.9] vs 5.7 [2.5, 8.8]; t3 22.6 [20.9, 24.4] vs 22.6 [20.8, 24.5]); these were not registered claims."
    }
  ],
  "flags": [],
  "compute": {
    "shell_commands": 4,
    "sandbox_seconds": 82.2,
    "jobs": 2,
    "job_seconds": 2953.2,
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      "limits": {
        "cpus": 3.5,
        "gpu": null,
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        "network": true,
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      },
      "target": "cloud",
      "target_detail": {
        "droplet": "repro-sandbox-20261018-0225",
        "image": "ubuntu-24-04-x64",
        "price_hourly_usd": 0.08333,
        "provider": "digitalocean",
        "region": "nyc3",
        "size": "s-4vcpu-8gb-intel"
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      "volume": "repro-arxiv-2004-01105-20261018t033025z-work",
      "warnings": []
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    "environment_event": 41
  },
  "drivers": [
    "operator:claude-opus-5-5 (Claude Code session, no human in the loop)"
  ],
  "model_usage": {},
  "model_cost_usd": null,
  "started_at": "2026-10-18T03:30:25.492Z",
  "ended_at": "2026-10-18T04:24:05.955Z",
  "log": {
    "events": 44,
    "head_hash": "90e4d597839451c42440893ea4dea7451ef11eaedc3887da05aa3c80dcc11e78"
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  "right_of_reply": "Authors may submit a response, which is published alongside this report unedited."
}